p(doom) Clock

The question

“Doom” means human extinction caused by AI, or a permanent and severe loss of humanity’s ability to determine its own future. The horizon is the end of 2042.

p(doom) is your estimated probability of that outcome by 2042. A probability of 0 means impossible; 1 means certain. For example, 0.05 equals 5%, or about one chance in twenty. It is a subjective probability, not a countdown.

Your estimate

Drag the clock hand, use the slider, or type a value in the centre. Keyboard users can adjust the clock with arrow keys, Home and End. The 0–1 and percent options express the same probability: 0.05 = 5%. Nothing is sent until you submit.

The community

The clock shows the arithmetic mean of active estimates after you vote. Each browser has one current answer with equal weight. The mean and distribution appear after five responses. This is a self-selected community opinion, not a representative survey or a measured risk.

Every 24 hours

A new submission replaces your previous answer after 24 hours. You can withdraw at any time. Withdrawal hides the community result and does not reset the waiting period. Other browsers or cleared storage can bypass the browser-based limit; we do not verify unique people.

Your data

No name or email is required. A random identifier stays in your browser; the server stores its hash, your estimate and submission times. Withdrawal removes the probability but retains the hash and timestamp for the cooldown. Losing the identifier removes your ability to withdraw that response. A temporary salted network-address hash helps limit repeated requests. Hosting access logs are separate.

A daily aggregate is archived at 23:55 Europe/Berlin for a future trend chart. It contains no browser identifiers or individual responses. Withdrawing an estimate does not change earlier aggregate snapshots.